{"id":46,"date":"2013-02-18T10:51:38","date_gmt":"2013-02-18T10:51:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.uao.es\/economicas-empresariales\/?p=46"},"modified":"2013-02-18T10:51:38","modified_gmt":"2013-02-18T10:51:38","slug":"la-bolsa-y-el-fin-de-la-recesion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.uao.es\/economicas-empresariales\/2013\/02\/18\/la-bolsa-y-el-fin-de-la-recesion\/","title":{"rendered":"La Bolsa y el Fin de la Recesi\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Las bolsas de Estados Unidos (Dow Jones, en rojo en el gr\u00e1fico adjunto)\u00a0y Alemania (DAX, en azul en el gr\u00e1fico) ya han recuperado los niveles de Noviembre de 2007, justo antes de empezar la gran recesi\u00f3n. En los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas alcanzar\u00e1n m\u00e1ximos hist\u00f3ricos porque las noticias empresariales (beneficios, ventas, etc) son cada vez m\u00e1s positivos.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-64 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.uao.es\/economicas-empresariales\/files\/2013\/02\/Gr\u00e1fico-de-Bolsa-interior-300x214.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"214\" \/><\/p>\n<p>En comparaci\u00f3n, la bolsa espa\u00f1ola (IBEX 35, en verde en el gr\u00e1fico adjunto) sigue 45% por debajo de los niveles de noviembre de 2007.<\/p>\n<p>Para los optimistas desbordados, fijaos que <strong>tanto en Espa\u00f1a como en Estados Unidos y Alemania, ya hubo subidas similares en 2010<\/strong>, cuando muchos pensaban (igual que hoy) que lo peor ya hab\u00eda pasado.<\/p>\n<p>La bolsa es un <a title=\"\u00bfLa bolsa es un predictor de la econom\u00eda?\" href=\"http:\/\/salaimartin.com\/randomthoughts\/video-blog-e-konomia\/item\/414\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cpredictor\u201d de la econom\u00eda<\/a> porque los inversores intentan anticipar los beneficios empresariales y cuando PIENSAN que los beneficios futuros van a subir, compran <a title=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 son las acciones y la bolsa?\" href=\"http:\/\/salaimartin.com\/randomthoughts\/video-blog-e-konomia\/item\/360\" target=\"_blank\">acciones (que dan derecho a esos beneficios) y la bolsa sube<\/a>. El problema es que, las bolsas han \u201cpredicho\u201d el fin de 6 de las \u00faltimas 2 recesiones. Es decir, si bien es cierto que cuando la crisis se acabe, la primera se\u00f1al vendr\u00e1 de la bolsa, tambi\u00e9n es cierto que no todas las subidas de la bolsa se\u00f1alan el fin de la crisis porque los inversores, como el resto de los mortales, no son capaces de \u201cver\u201d el futuro y sus previsiones a menudo son incorrectas. Cuando los son, la bolsa se corrige, vuelve a bajar y la econom\u00eda no se recupera. Los inversores ya predijeron el fin de la crisis durante 2010 y entre octubre de 2011 y abril de 2012: en ambos casos las bolsas subieron y todo parec\u00eda indicar que la recesi\u00f3n se hab\u00eda acabado y en ambos casos las bolsas volvieron a colapsar y la econom\u00eda no se recuper\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Veo demasiada euforia a mi alrededor. Y la euforia es mala.<\/p>\n<p>Written by <a title=\"Xavier Sala i Mart\u00edn\" href=\"http:\/\/salaimartin.com\/about-xsm\/curriculum.html\" target=\"_blank\">Xavier Sala i Mart\u00edn<\/a>, en <a title=\"http:\/\/salaimartin.com\" href=\"http:\/\/salaimartin.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">salaimartin.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Las bolsas de Estados Unidos (Dow Jones, en rojo en el gr\u00e1fico adjunto)\u00a0y Alemania (DAX, en azul en el gr\u00e1fico) ya han recuperado los niveles&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":63,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-contabilidad-y-finanzas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La Bolsa y el Fin de la Recesi\u00f3n - 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